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In a critical 25-minute analysis from Money Making Market, a major technical shift has been identified that could define market direction for weeks to come. The video reveals that a key 'downside door' has opened for the SPY, with the RSI break signaling potential for a significant correction. While the weekly chart remains structurally bullish, the immediate risk on the 2-hour chart is severe: any failure to make new highs could trigger a rapid move toward the monthly expected move, with scenarios pointing to a 10-15% decline. The analysis also highlights the relative weakness in QQQ and a concerning breakdown in IWM that could be forming the right shoulder of a larger pattern. The full report details the exact MACD and price levels to watch for confirmation, the specific 'gates' that must hold to prevent a deeper selloff, and how options markets are already pricing in moves for 2026...
A pivotal technical shift has occurred, with the RSI break opening a 'downside door' for the SPY. The analysis calculates the daily and monthly expected move ranges, identifying the precise zone where price is currently testing for support or breakdown.
The video outlines a clear bullish path requiring a swift 2-hour chart trend reversal and a direct run to new all-time highs. However, it contrasts this with a dominant bearish scenario where failure leads to a test of the monthly expected move and potentially much lower levels. Volatility analysis currently favors the bigger correction scenarios.
Critical warnings are issued for QQQ, identified as the weakest major index, and IWM, which has broken a key daily level. The report stresses that any MACD rollover on the 2-hour chart before new highs are made significantly raises the probability of a sharp decline, with specific downside targets outlined for each index.
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